Edited From: Newsgroup rec.games.bridge on 3Aug05: Message 295936 and replies.
John Steinberg's most recent report on the Atlanta Nationals contained some interesting information about the ACBL's demographic base. Most notably, the average age of the membership is now in the late 60s. Equally significant, the Board of Directors (BoD) seems to have recognized the very real danger that the membership numbers will abruptly drop in the near future (as I recall, the expression "drive off a cliff" was used).
It would be interesting if the BoD were able to provide some more information on this topic. Average membership age is a very bad statistic to study the impact of a demographic bulge working its way through the population. A relatively small influx of extremely young members can do a lot to dress up the mean while having VERY little impact on the financial crunch. Equally significant, when older players drop their memberships in large numbers, this will actually have the impact of making the mean age decrease.
It would be much more useful to track the median membership age, as well as the rate of change of the median of time. In any ideal world, I'd love to see the total membership sorted by age for the last 5 years or so... This would allow us to understand the age at which the members fall of the cliff as well as the total number of members who will be lost without replacement over the next few years...
We are not to worry. The problem is being solved:
"Within the next year there should be a new "BridgeIsCool" website, celebrity endorsements, and expanded media coverage. This is a $200,000 commitment (out of ACBL's $1 Million + annual marketing budget) towards marketing the game to younger players."
It is in addition to all of ACBL's existing junior programs.
The hard reality is that ACBL Junior membership has remained stable at about 750 members during the past decade. Meanwhile the average ACBL member is now 68 years old. The ACBL 2005 budget commitment to hire a professional outside marketing firm is a major shift in priorities that I believe is a very positive move." (from the Fall 2004 ACBL Board Meeting)
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I don't know where Steinberg gets 67.28. The ACBL reported 68.21 in Feb. 2004. The ACBL used to distribute very detailed membership statistics, including age, to the Secretaries of the units, in the so-called Quarterly Unit Information Package. But the numbers are bad news and thus rarely mentioned and not systematically posted on the Internet. So it is hard to get an accurate fix on the trend.
In early 1998 - 64.66 was reported
in early 2002 - 65.87
In early 2004 - 68.21
These numbers don't seem to be quite consistent, unless something odd is occurring, but in any case the curve seems to be shifting to the right at a rapid pace.
The decline of Bridge in the U.S. is a fascinating topic, particularly because it isn't a universal phenomenon (e.g. no comparable decline in Holland and Scandinavia) and because the U.S. was once, not long ago, the hotbed of Bridge. Bridge peaked in the late 50's to early 60's when about 1/3 of U.S. adults knew how to play.
Today novices tend to be recent retirees who played bridge in their youth. In other words, these people were young when Bridge was popular. This pool of recruits will now begin to decline rapidly. This is one reason why a crash is predicted. The other reason is simply the clustering effect: You need a club nearby, and a group of players, else you will find other amusements. Even in densely populated areas, for example the in the area around Boston, evening games are already quite rare, and strong games almost nonexistent. And if you have no evening games you cannot recruit young people, no matter how loudly you proclaim that Bridge is cool, or hot, or any other temperature.
I don't see why the median should provide more interesting information than the mean. However, other quantiles are impressive. For example, 85% of ACBL members are older than 55 (reported Summer 2003).
Not every problem in the world can be solved by advertising campaigns and solemn incantations. The ACBL has not caused the decline of card games. The ACBL has hired an endless series of publicity directors, and they have started all sorts of 'publicity initiatives', each of which quietly disappeared - I have forgotten their names - 'Bridge America' was one, now CoolBridge, next HotBridge.
Bridge will increasingly be played among old people. The question is whether enough old people will participate to support a network of clubs. If not, the game will survive mainly in old age homes.
Meanwhile the ACBL membership may well increase for a little while as the 'baby boomers' retire, and this increase, if it happens, will almost surely be ascribed to the wrong causes.